Where are we?

  What does all of this tell us?  If we use the half way points:- Hospital admissions lagged cases by only 3 days as the Omicron cases were spreading. As the Omicron cases reduce, Hospital admissions are taking far longer to reduce.  Admissions today, 10 days after the number of daily cases had halved, have … Read more


It looks like cases are peaking now in all the following the Christmas and new year spikes.  New cases per day should now start to come down. And the number of patients in hospital will looks like it has peaked too at 16,163 on 7th January.  Admissions peaked at 2,370 on 29th December following the … Read more

In Europe

Cases look similar in most European countries except Germany The differenced in Germany may be explained by two factors. Firstly Germany is still operating a lock down on the unvaccinated and also the country has yet to experience an Omicron wave. The UK will struggle with hospital overload. After years of under funding and creeping privatisation … Read more

Hospitals-time to worry

The graph below is quite frightening.  It shows the number of new daily cases that result in a hospital bed 14 days later. If we look at January we see that we only needed to be having one or two new cases per day to be having 1 case in hospital 14 days later.   … Read more

The amazing Zahawi

Nadhim Zahawi, minister for education, (and contender for PM) says:- “There’s nothing in the data that gives me any concern that we need to go beyond where we are at.” Meanwhile Covid hospital patients have gone up 76% in a week, the biggest percentage rise ever recorded.  He follows this with:- “The NHS is very … Read more

Christmas to new Year

A record of a week of Covid in England 28 December Data is a bit erratic at present due to the Christmas holidays but in the four days since Christmas day in England:- New cases have risen by 3% but appear to be levelling off. Hospital admissions have gone up 33%. These would be the … Read more

Meanwhile, down in Cornwall

Omicron has not really hit Cornwall yet.  From 14th December, England’s total daily new cases have risen by 86%, Scotland’s 54%, Wales’ 48% and Northern Ireland 42%.  Cornwall’s has dropped by 3%. But all that will change in the next week as people come home for Christmas,  second home owners take their winter break and … Read more

The Unvaccinated.

Austria saw a huge spike in new cases starting in October. On November 22nd a full lockdown was introduced. This continued until December 12th (plainly seen by the kink in the graph) when the lock down was removed  for vaccinated people.  Unvaccinated people remain in lockdown although some restrictions will be lifted for a few days over … Read more

Data Mining

It looks like the daily hospitalisations in South Africa peaked on the 11th December.  Which is odd as the daily new cases did not peak until the 17th December.  My guess is that this says more about South Africa’s data reporting than it says about the data. What follows is an attempt to analyse the … Read more

Omicron – how mild?

The cases of the Omicron variant are rising fast.  But we are told it is milder that the Delta variant.  South Africa Data as of 12th Dec The upper two graphs above would suggest that the omicron variant gives rise to a higher hospital admission rate than Delta!  But the two health systems are different. … Read more