Troughing

  • Cases hit a low on 25th February and have started to rise.
  • Hospital admissions hit a low on 22nd February and are rising
  • Deaths are still going down, but they are typically 18 days behind cases, so the low should be around mid March.

This is not unexpected, given the removal of all restrictions, but we can hope that this is just a part of the inevitable “ripple”

From late summer 2021 to Christmas, before Omicron hit us, we averaged around 35,000 cases, 900 hospital admissions, and 130 deaths per day. The government seemed relatively content with that figure.  That was with the Delta variant.

Our daily cases, are about the same as they were then, hospital admissions are 30% higher but deaths are 35% lower and still going down, albeit slowly.  This higher number of admissions may be people admitted to hospital for other reasons, but just happen to have Covid.

It is too early to tell if this is a ripple or the beginning of a surge.

Update 11th March.
Our local hospital has had to suspend visiting due to a high level of Covid on the wards

“Over the last few days there has been a significant increase in the number of people in hospital who are covid positive. Although the vast majority of the 85 people have been admitted for another reason, it means we have many wards or bays unable to take new admissions.As a result, we have had to take the difficult decision to suspend all visiting with immediate effect. This includes visits planned for later today and through the coming weekend.”

Cases are up 31% on last week.
It looks like a surge rather than a ripple.

  • 24 million people had their booster dose more than three months ago
  • 11 million people had caught the virus more than three months ago
  • 29 million people have not had a booster dose at all

It seems immunity via previous infection or vaccination wears off after three months so all of these people (there is overlap so the numbers can’t be simply added) are vulnerable.

Now with personal experience of symptoms of the disease, and with the laborious reporting procedure, I am 100% sure it is much more prevalent in the community than the figures suggest.

The tragedy of Ukraine has taken over the news and public concern just now, but not only has Covid not “gone away”, it is on the rise. With no restrictions, and no government support for affected businesses, and the vast majority of the UK still susceptible, we could be in for a tough time.

 

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