Covid-over the hill?

Daily deaths in the UK peaked at on 19th January at 283. On 28th December they were half that figure and rising. They are going down now, and since that half way point we have had 10,400 deaths.

New cases peaked on 1st January at 212,837 per day.  The half way point was 18th December. Since then we have had 6,752,201 cases. This gives a mortality figure of 0.15% or around 1 in 650.

Hospital admissions “peaked” on 4th Jan at 2,270 per day. (The top of the curve was flat probably due to saturation of the service).  It has yet to come down to pre-omicron spike levels. The half way up date was 20th December.  Since then we have had 95,439 hospital admissions. or 1.4% of cases or 1 in 71.

Cases, and deaths rates are falling at around 30% per week, but hospital admissions are falling at only 12% per week.  Perhaps this is because as the pressure on the hospitals eases they can take in the less serious cases.  The corollary to this must be that the death rate was probably higher at the peak because some patients who should had been in hospital could not get in.

If cases continue to fall at this rate then they will be down to the relatively care free rate of last summer (2000 cases per day) by mid April.  But lots can happen before then.  If free tests are taken away (as being discussed) then obviously the number of reported cases will drop dramatically.  So only hospital admissions and deaths will be able to be used as a measure.

We may be getting to the stage where we can regard Covid as being similar to flu, in the case of the Omicron variant anyway. But there is the possibility, or probability really, of another wave of another variant.  With so many cases world wide the virus has an excellent chance of mutating.  Milder variants have the better chance of spreading, as there will be less counter measures imposed, such as restrictions, and specific vaccines. Hopefully though, we are now pre-warned, pre-armed, and experienced enough to tackle another wave.

But with this government who knows?