Where are we?

 

Cases by specimen date start to rise on 9th December. Peak on 2nd January. Half way up and down points are 23rd Dec and 7th Jan.
Hospital Admissions started to rise on 19th December. Peak on 1st January Half way up point is 26th December. The flat top to the curve is probably due to hospital saturation.
Patients in Hospital start to rise on 25th December, peak on 11th Jan. Half way up point is 2nd Jan. We have yet to reach the half way down point.
Death numbers start to rise on 26th December, Peak on 10th Jan, half way point is 2nd Jan. We have yet to reach the half way down point

What does all of this tell us?  If we use the half way points:-

  • Hospital admissions lagged cases by only 3 days as the Omicron cases were spreading.
  • As the Omicron cases reduce, Hospital admissions are taking far longer to reduce.  Admissions today, 10 days after the number of daily cases had halved, have hardly some down at all.
  • The number of people in hospital is reducing, but  very slowly, so slightly more patients ARE leaving compared to new admissions.
  • The number of daily deaths lagged cases by 10 days as the cases were spreading.
  • As the cases reduce, Deaths, like Hospital admissions are taking far longer to start going down.

This data shows that although the number of daily new recorded cases have been coming down since January 2nd, Daily hospital admissions and deaths are taking longer than 16 days to reduce (so far)
Yet as the number of daily new recorded case were rising, hospital admissions and deaths lagged by only 3 days and 10 days respectively.

With previous waves I estimated that the deaths lagged 18 days behind the cases.  If that is so, then we can expect the deaths to peak around  20th January. and half by the 25th.

I suspect that the quick rise in hospital patients was driven more by the capacity of the hospitals rather than the need of the patients.  At the start of the wave the hospitals simply had more room. Around 1st January, regardless of patient need, admissions levelled out at around 2200 per day.