Peaking?

It looks like cases are peaking now in all the following the Christmas and new year spikes.  New cases per day should now start to come down.

And the number of patients in hospital will looks like it has peaked too at 16,163 on 7th January.  Admissions peaked at 2,370 on 29th December following the Christmas spike and again at 2,219 on 3rd January following the New year spike.  Meanwhile at least 24 hospital trusts have declared critical incidents so far.

Ensuing Covid deaths will be much lower than the first and second waves where we were experiencing around 1000 per day. We are currently averaging 160 per day in England.   But deaths due to missed diagnoses and delayed operations due to hospital and ambulance service overload will continue to be significant, if uncounted.

After the peak the cases should come down a settle to a stable level. With the Delta variant, cases have not been below 25, 000 per day for the last six months. Omicron is more transmissible so the steady state will probably be higher, and be a c0nstant load on the NHS, probably until the next (inevitable?) wave. Will the government expand the NHS in order to deal with this?  Call me cynical, but I don’t think so.