A Glimmer of Hope

New daily cases in the UK have risen about 30% since 1st September.  Deaths per day have risen 25% in the same time.  We seem to be almost unaffected by the steep rises in Europe. Germany’s daily cases have risen 600% since 30th September and as a result deaths per head of population are now twice that of the UK and still rising. France’s cases are now rising at 60% per week.

The reason ours are not rising so fast is probably the booster doses.  It does appear that the double doses wear off after a few months. For example, by Mid July around 60% of the population were double jabbed. But deaths had already started to rise and peaked rise mid September – probably as the benefits if the vaccine was wearing off. The booster jabs have mitigated that effect but Europe is quite a way behind the UK with booster roll out.

Our government has made a good call (I never thought I’d be able to say that) in rolling out the booster jabs and and another one in accelerating the rollout., 

But is the light at the end of the tunnel a train coming?  We (the richer nations) have kept vaccines to ourselves, and as a result the virus has spread widely in the poorer countries and the more virus there is the greater the incidence of mutations.

The latest issue is the omicron variant which was only first confirmed on 9th November.  It appears to be quite a change from the currently widespread delta variant and it may be more infectious.  

Weekly cases in South Africa have leapt from five and a half thousand to over twenty five thousand in the last seven days, But only 29% of the population have been double jabbed. That is about the sane speed that the original virus spread here in the UK back in March 2020 when no one was vaccinated.

SO in the double jabbed and/or boosted countries:-

  • it may or may not be more infectious.
  • it may or may not be able to get around the vaccines
  • it may or may not cause a greater degree of illness or death
  • previous cases of covid may or may not offer protection from this variant.

We just don’t know. We will have to wait for data from South Africa. They only recognised it three weeks ago so this will take time.  Virtually no one in South Africa has had the booster dose, so we cannot simply compare their statistics with ours.

For the first time (I think) in this blog I am quite impressed with the governments responses.  We have stopped flights from certain countries which is a good thing, but we should have gone further, like Japan, and stopped all international travel until we knew the situation. We should also be giving South Africa all the help it can use.

If the vaccines offer little protection, and the severity of the disease is as bad as our previous variants then lock downs are inevitable. 

If the vaccines are effective then we may have a merry Christmas, (apart from the 800 or so that are dying every week and their relatives of course)

Misinformation

The spread of malevolant misinformation to the gullible is one of the prime ways to accelerate the spread of the virus.

This nasty piece of work has posted this on twitter and it’s been copied and shared onto facebook,

Despite all the data to the contrary, many of the gullible will believe this idiot.

All lies and jests, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Paul Simon

Florida has the fourth highest number of covid deaths of all 51 states in the USA and the 9th highest per capita. But many naive people still believe the lies spread by the likes of the malevolent tweeter above

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