European worries

Cases are rising extremely rapidly in Europe, particularly in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands

Why? Although Austria is behind the UK in vaccinations, the Netherlands is ahead of us. 

Cases have started to rise in the UK too from around 10th November, although the rise is less dramatic than these other countries. But typically 7-10 days after that we can expect hospital admissions to start rising and 7-10 days later we can expect deaths to rise.

Austria’s mortality rate, as measured by

new deaths/new cases 18 days ago

is about 0.8%, so Austria may be experiencing 100 deaths a day in 2-3 weeks.

The Netherlands mortality rate 0.38% (similar to the UK) and this difference may be due to the vaccination status.

The reasons for the rise in cases may be simply based on the weather. We know that the virus spreads faster in the winter months.  

The government will, as usual, wait until the crisis is actually upon us before they take any action. But let us hope that a combination of herd immunity and booster jabs may save the UK from the worst of the current surge in Europe.