The health secretary Sajid Javid has said that the infections could reach 100,000 a day. Presumably that is the trigger point for the government to “do something”.
New cases are currently at 49,000 per day and going up at around 20% per week. So he is saying “they could double”. We should reach 100,000 in 4 weeks. (mid November). It may be earlier! A new variant is emerging which seems to be more transmissible.
If that happens, then 2-3 weeks after that, (early December) our death rate should reach about 600 per day.
In reality the NHS is overwhelmed NOW and is giving the appearance of coping by postponing and delaying vital surgery and operations including those which have already been delayed.
Soon the winter flu season will be upon us. The season was not as severe as usual last year because the actions to minimise the spread of Covid also reduced the spread of flu. This year most experts expect it to be worse than normal.
The ambulance service is overwhelmed NOW with many people having to wait 8 hours or more for a one to turn up, then more hours at the hospitals waiting to be seen.
So despite government ministers blustering, Javid is going to trigger Plan B soon.
This brings in restrictions more or less the same as are currently in place in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. So how are they doing?
Wales and Northern Ireland are currently worse than England and Scotland seems to have levelled out at the same as England was before the false negatives.
Deaths in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are all greater than England.
Plan B will have an effect, but not a dramatic one, but the sooner the better.
Update 25th October
I usually use Tesco’s click and collect for my groceries but their site was down (due to hackers allegedly) so I had to go in. Only around 25% of customers were wearing masks. I could see no children who looked to be in the 12-16 age group, where the virus is most prevalent. wearing masks.
Then we headed up North from Cornwall and stopped in a motorway service station in there Midlands. Around 90% of people in the station, including staff, were unmasked.
Unsurprisingly, cases continue to climb.