Freedom day plus three months

Restrictions were removed in England on 19th July – three months ago.  The number of daily cases now is around the same, so maybe we are not doing so bad?

After “Freedom Day” the cases came down following the super spreading events of the world cup and festivals combined with the restrictions that had been in place.  New cases bottomed out on 31st July, then the removal of restrictions began to have an effect and cases have been generally rising since and are now 72% higher. (that is are around 20% per month) 

New cases in the UK

We can see the cases rising then a dip then a dip in September followed by a slight rise. A steeper rise starts again in early October  and it continues  now at around 17% per week.

Daily reported deaths in the UK

Deaths increase steadily then we see a decrease 2-3 weeks after the dip in cases as expected. The deaths are starting to rise the usual 2-3 week after the cases and they are now rising at 15% per week.  It would be sensible to act now to stem the spread but it is not our government’s style to nip things in the bud.  

These figures from the governments website can only be an approximation due to errors at the Wolverhampton PCR testing facility.  The erroneous sending out negative results will have resulted in an initial drop in recorded cases followed by a rise in infections as those who received the wrong results unknowingly passed the virus on.