Hospital Overload

Let us see how the load on hospitals effects the mortality rate.  This is a comparison of the 2021 January surge, the spring lull, durimg the lockdown, and the latest data on the government website.

The January Spike

ParameterDateValue
Cases per day1st Jan61,227
Patients admitted to hospital per day9th Jan4,234
Hospital occupancy19th Jan38,434
Deaths per day19th Jan1,286

1 in 30 Covid hospital occupants were dying per day

The Spring Lull

ParameterDateValue
Cases per day1st May1354
Patients admitted to hospital per day9th May103
Hospital occupancy29th May900
Deaths per day19th May6

1 in 150 of occupants died per day

Now

ParameterDateValue
Cases per day13th Aug29,809
Patients admitted to hospital per day23rd Aug925
Hospital occupancy31st August7418
Deaths per day31st August 111

Now 1 in 67 hospital occupants are dying per day.

This indicates, as one would expect, that the greater the load on the hospitals, the lesser the chance of survival in patients. Currently, the load on hospitals is only 20% of what it was at the peak in January, but already the chances of dieing in hospital due to Covid are over twice what they were when the hospitals were not under as much pressure.

In the graph below we can see how the hospital deaths went down from around 1 in 50 to 1 in 30 as the hospitals got overloaded  in January, then as the overload cleared, and the effects of the vaccine kicked in the death rate went up to over 1 in 150 in mid May.  But since then as the hospital workload increases, due to :-

  • more patients
  • less staff due to staff isolating
  • less staff due due to demoralised staff leaving the profession after lack of gratitude and  recogntion from the government.
  • less staff due to the effect of Brexit

we see the mortality in hospitals is only slightly better than pre-vaccine days, and getting worse.

 

For reference, here is the record of the number of Cvid patients in Hospital over the sam period

It is clear that the governments in the UK have done as much as they are prepared to do, for now, to  stop the spread of Covid.  The English government is making a point of no restrictions and relying on the vaccines, the yet to be rolled out booster jabs and peoples personal choices.

In Scotland, where the cases are at around twice the England level, and as high as Cornwall’s cases were at the peak, Nicola Sturgeon is intruducing Covid passports for nightclubs which come into force on 1st October.  Boris Johnson will probably follow directly. 

Update 1 day later

Cornwall hospitals suspend all routine and urgent surgery over Covid pressures
This is late summer, the situation is forecast to get worse as autumn comes on.

Update – and the next day

Ruth Goldstein (Cornwall’s public health advisor), live on Radio Cornwall says Cornwall has about About 365 Covid per 100,000 and we are out of the crisis.  She also says she’d love to see the figure in the 100s (Isn’t 365 in the hundreds?)

Ruth Goldstein says she does not have the current figures available but we nothing like the 90’s or 100’s in hospital at the peak. Maybe it’s because the official data source is very suspect!

 The governments site shows 5 people in Hospital with Covid.  And it showed a maximum of 56!



But Cornwall hospitals say:-

“The Trust currently has more than 40 people in hospital who are Covid positive and nearly 50 more who are contacts and need to be isolated.”

So, who is right?

  •  Our public health advisor who does not have the figures to hand,
  • the governments site which reports 5 hospital cases in Cornwall
  • or The  Cornwall Hospital Trust themselves who report 40 patients in Hospital with Covid.

Not exactly confidence inspiring!!

 

Update 16th September

What is going on with Cornwall Hospital Trust? According to govermnent figures there has only been 1 admission for covid since 28th August

But according to the Trusts lastest news covid ratated admissions are high and surgery is being suspended.

If the trust is correct then the governments figures are massively under-reporting the covid situations in hospitals.

 

 

 

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