Currently the UK leads Europe in the number of new Covid cases in the last 7 days. We are around 240,000 and rising, while in second place is Russia (although Russia’s figures are suspect at 140,000 and falling We also lead when taking population into account (apart from the tiny countries of the Isle of Man and Montenegro.
Only Russia and Spain have had more deaths on the last 7 days than the UK. The death rate is rising in the UK but slower than in most other European countries.
UK cases and deaths and hospitalisations are all rising at around 10% per week. If this continues, and there is no reason that it should get better (although it could get considerably worse), then by Christmas we can expect around:-
- 150,000 new cases per day
- 5,000 new hospital admissions per day
- 500 deaths per day
If it were to continue, then in around a year 1 in 10 of the population will be getting infected every day. This is clearly ludicrous.
So, does the government have a strategy? Well, it does:-
It was last updated over a year ago, and is hopelessly out of date.
The government could react now to curb the increase, but that has never been Boris’s style. He always waits for something to turn up, until the situation gets critical then reacts.
Scotland’s cases have rocketed since the schools went back. Nicola Sturgeon usually tries to second guess what Boris will do then does it a few days earlier. But unfortunately for her, Scottish schools reopen two weeks before the English schools. So she will have to make her own decision which, this time, Boris will copy.
So the governments strategy is basically:-