In my last post I asked:-
- how fast does the the current variant of the virus spread without super spreader events under current restrictions?
- when is the next super spreader event?
- will the Latitude festival experiment be a success?
- are there any significantly different variants on the way?
We can look at the cases in the UK to get some idea.
Scotland’s case rate peaked earlier than England’s, probably because Scotland was knocked out of the European cup before England and most Scots would not bother to watch following England matches. Cases came down and look like levelling around 1000 cases per million of population per week.
England’s look like they may level at between 2000 and 3000. The difference may be because of the current tighter restrictions in Scotland. So around 1 in 400 of the population of England will be infected every week. This is an average of 20,000 cases per day, which will result in around 50 deaths per day and around 400 hospital admissions. per day.
2.The next Super spreader
There is nothing in sight other than Christmas that compares to the European cup final.
3.The Latitude Festival
So here we are, 9 days after the festival ended. Everyone was tested on the way out. But no results have been published. This BBC story gives anecdotal information of one person who tested positive who tested positive
Jess, 18, from Norwich, went to the festival with a group of friends on Sunday but was “pinged” on Monday and told to isolate for 10 days after one of them tested positive.
She said she personally knew between 15 and 20 people who had so far tested positive after attending Latitude.
I wonder what percentage of the 40,000 people she knew personally? Presumably these 15-20 people also knew other people not in this group. There could be tens, hundreds, or thousands who caught the virus at th Latitude .Without data no sensible risk assessment can be made. But double vaccinated and tested people can pass on the virus.
The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport said it was too early for Latitude results to be fully collated.
It said the results would go into the next phased report of the research programme.The BBC asked Norfolk County Council if it was aware of any Latitude-related Covid cases in its area, but a spokesman said it would not be commenting for the time being.
Meanwhile, without any data, festivals and events are being organised up and down the country.
This is unbelievably complicated. This publication from the World Health Organisation gives some idea. Basically we do know what to expect.
It seems that we muddle on with 20,000 cases, 400 hospital entries, and 50 deaths per day until the next “situation changer”. Whatever it is, either a new variant, a succession of spreader events, loosening of travel restrictions, or reduction of self isolation times, the situation changer looks unlikely to be a good one.