Covid – Mortality

I measure the mortality of the pandemic as the ratio of deaths to new cases 18 days earlier.  Why 18 days? This seems to give the most consistent graphs.

Before September 2020, the measurement of new cases was very sporadic so I only use the figures after that date.

We can see the mortlality sitting at aboy 1.5-2% before the big surge in cases in December.  As the NHS was struggling mortality got worse, rising to 3%.  Then as the cases came down, mortality levelled out at about 2%.
Then in early February the vaccines began to have an effect and mortality gradually improved to around 0.25% where it sits today.
(The spikes in early April and mid May are not real, but are anomolies caused by changes to the governments figures as some cases are re-allocated to different times).

Deaths in Scotland are currently averaging 4 per million of population per week.  Cases 18 days ago were around 1400 per million.  This gives a ratio of about 0.28%. But there has been a spike in cases (now subsiding) taking the new case rate up to 4400 per day, so, sadly, we can expect the death rate to increases to around 12 per million.  This translates to around 60 per week or 9-10 deaths per day.

In England the equivalent figures are lower at 2.5 deaths per million and new cases 19 days ago at about 950, giving a ratio of 0.26%.  The new case rate has tripled since then and we can expect the death rate to do the same in 2-3 weeks.

The government seem to expect the cases to rise to 50,000, to 100,000 or even higher per day. Deaths will be at around 250 per day.  This is about a quarter of the peak we saw in January.  As the death rate goes up as the NHS gets swamped, the mortality may be worse.

The rate of rise of new cases has gone down in England in the last week, but that was before the European cup matches which saw thousands of people crammed together in the stadium, in pubs, and in the streets after the game.  We should start to see the effect on the infection rate in the next few days.

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