The Exit Strategy

The fourth wave of Covid 19 infections is continuing unabated in the UK. First a little data:-

  • New cases are now rising at about 70% per week.
    If they continue to rise at this rate they will reach record levels by July 13th.
    If they continue to tise at this rate thereafter they will reach 1 million per day by late August
    But the rate is actually increasing.
  • Hospitalisation are rising at 20% per week.
    If they continue to rise at this rate they will reach record levels by early October.
    But the rate is actually increasing
  • Deaths per day are still low but seem to be increasing at around 20% per week.
     If they continue to rise at this rate they will reach record levels by late DecemberThere is insufficient data as yet to say if the death rates are increasing
  •  70% of the population has had only one dose of a vaccine
  •  50% have two doses
  • Vaccinations are currently running at 2 million doses per day.
    But the rate is actually decreasing
  •  If you have had Covid you can catch it again.

The mortality figure has dropped from 3% to around 0.25%.  This is good, but it appears that the government will allow the cases to rise exponentially.

As of today (4th July) almost a million people are reporting symptoms of long Covid lasting 12 weeks or more. This is from a total number of recorded cases of around 4.5 million. So almost a quarter of the people who caught the virus were suffering some sort of effects three months later.

The U.K. government have made a complete mess of handling pandemic and only the combination of the scientists who developed the vaccine and the NHS’s incredibly efficient vaccine rollout machine has managed to curtail the virus to date.

Boris Johnson has announced an end to restrictions on 19th July.  By that time we will have record levels of cases of the virus in the population and the virus will still be spreading.  It will spread even faster once restrictions are relaxed.  

The vulnerable will have to look after themselves.They can wear a mask but they can’t force those that they have react with to wear one. Neither can they know whether their carer, or visitor or shop assistant has just been in a crowded bar or restaurant.

The scientists and the NHS have played their best cards already, they have nothing left up their sleeves.