Cornwall’s case rate is rising extremely rapidly.
But so far the death rate has not increased. It seems that the vaccine program has had a huge effect on the death rate.
In England as a whole the number of new cases bottomed out around May 4th at 218 per day. Deaths bottomed out 18 days later at 0.57 (both figures per million of population). So Mortality looks to be around 0.26%.
By 29th May the new case rate has risen to 313 and the death rate is 0.97 indicating a mortality figure of 0.3%.
We can say that the mortality is now at around 0.3%
Today Englands new cases are around 11000 per day so we can expect death rates of around 33 recorded deaths per day by the first week in July.
Meanwhile in tiny Cornwall the new case rate is around 127 per day so Cornwall can expect to lose 1 person every 2-3 days . But cases are going up very fast – they are doubling every 3 days. And this is with restrictions on social gatherings still in place.
Restrictions were eases in 17th May, and we see no increases immediately following hat date. The bank holiday weekend when tourists arrive from 28th to 31st May sees no increases.
The graph above shows cases rising from 6th June. Infections would have occurred 2-4 days before this. 4000 Rooms at 200 venues were being cleared from 24th May as they were booked by the police and the cabinet office. Over the next week British police, and foreign members of security services, press and delegates started to arrive. At the same time students arrived back at Penryn college after hald term.
The Media are not blaming the Media for this (surprise surprise). This article by Ruth Goldstein is blaming it all on the students at Penryn college. She disregards ths closure of the Pedn Olva Hotel, housing CBS media and German security staff due to 13 out of 17 staff members catching the disease. Strangely there is no mention of the guests being infected or how the staff were infected.
Do the cases in Cornwall actually include the G7 visitors? Probably not – they would have had their own medical teams conducting their own tests.
The biggest spikes are in Carbis Bay, where the G7 actually took place, St Ives, the nearest town to the conference and where many of the security services and press were housed, Falmouth where a huge media centre was located, and Newquay where all of the international delegations and foreign security services entered the country.
ANYWAY, under current restrictions, cases are doubling every two weeks in the UK in general and every three days in Cornwall. But apparently our government is only concerned about when to relax the current restrictions.
We have been here before. Is the government now deciding to let it run it’s course and tolerate the lower mortality and effect on the NHS? Maybe!