Wave Number 3

In the UK it seems that the residents are desperate to go on holiday abroad, and also those abroad are desperate to come to the UK.As regards visitors, most come from Europe.  The Brits most popular places this year are Turkey, Cyprus and Greece.

Here is a comparison of the Covid situation how these countries are doing.

It is obvious that currently cases in the UK are lower than all of these countries. But the number of cases depends on the testing regime so actual figures are not a good comparison. However the trend is important. Cases are rising in Spain, Croatia, Turkey and Cyprus, and a little here in the UK.

The deaths can be used as a comparison however. ALL of our neighbours and the popular destinations are in a worse state than we are with the exception of Portugal which is in a similar situation. But Portugal is now allowing essential travel from Brazil which currently has a covid death rate of 94 per million, which would be off the scale in the above graph.

So as travel restrictions are reduced and travelers come in and out we can probably expect a rise in infections. 

As of now, around 50% of the eligible population in the UK have had their first dose of the vaccine, but the supply of vaccines are now limited and most of what is available is going for the second dose to the over 60s.

But the over 60s are not the majority of our holiday makers and so many will be unprotected, and some will catch the disease and bring it back.

As the government eases the restrictions, I think a third wave in inevitable. Hopefully it will not be as bad as the last one.