Are we doing well now?

General
Not as good as we were!  The rapid fall in the number of new cases per day has flattened out and the numbers in Scotland and Northern Ireland are going up.

Scotland’s rate has benn going up for the past week. Co-incidentally (?) Nicola Sturgeon began opening the schools three weeks ago – and she is continueing to ease the lockdown. Northern Irelands schools started back a week ago.

Deaths are generally still falling rapidly except in Northern Ireland which is showing a slight rise. Deaths tended to follow the cases rate about 2-3 weeks behind, but this will now be moderated by the effects of the vaccination program.

The jump in deaths is due to Scotland adding around 170 deaths which had been overlooked since the start of the pandemic to the total on one day

Our weekly death rate per head of population jas improved and we are now at number 50 (out of 221).

Vaccinations are still rolling out, but the rate seems to be decreasing, albeit slowly.

The UK is now tackling the outbreak better then some othe countries. Death rate is lower than Ireland, the USA and even Germany.  Deaths are rising in Brazil, partly due to a new variant which is more virulent.  Hopefully we can keep this strain out of the country.

Mortality seems to be running at around 2.2%. I base this on the number of new deaths today divided by the number of new cases 18 days ago. The graph shows a peak as the NHS was under pressure in Mid January.
The mortality will be lower than this in reality as not all cases are discovered, but it still seems to be worse than it was.  This may be due to news strains.
We should be seing a fall in the death due to the vaccinations. Allowing 3 weeks for the vaccine to be effective, then 18 days for cases to translate in deaths, then we should now be seeing the effect of vacinations before 4th February. Around 16% of the population were vaccinated by then, and most were the vulnerable and elderly and those more likely to succumb. So why is the mortality rate not coming down?  Answers could be:-

  1. If less older folk are dieing, but the overall mortality rate is not coming down then more younger folk are dieing. Therefore the latest strains of the virus are more lethal

  2. The death rate in older folk is not coming down so the vaccine is not effective

Either case is worrying.  We are on a knife edge now. The government has been stupid enough in the past but the public can be stupid too.

This is a vigil on 13th March in protest for the tragic death of Sarah Everard.
How many people will die or lose loved ones due to the Covid spread directly from these protests. 
Did the vigils make the streets safer for women? No
Did the mass gatherings without social distancing spread the disease? Almost certainly.

Acts like this will slow down or even reverse our recovery from the pandemic.  I suspect there may not have been many ICU nurses at the vigils.

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