Light at the end of the Tunnel
It appears that the number of new cases is coming down from 2.8 million per week at a rate of about 3% per day. It looks like the daily number of deaths has plateaued and should start coming down at a similar rate.
We can initially expect the number of deaths to decrease faster as the vaccinations take effect. Then as the vaccine rolls out to younger people we should see the number of daily new cases and the cases of long covid to reduce faster too.
Vaccinations are happening at around 250,000 (England) per day and this number should increase. 2,000,000 a week is the target. So if all goes to plan, the entire population should be vaccinated within six months. So:-
- if the vaccinations go to plan, and
- if the government does not reduce restrictions too early, and
- if any new variants are not much more contagious than the ones we are dealing with, and
- if any new variants are not resistive to the vaccine, then
we could be almost back to normal by July.
The government and the media are warning us about threats for different strains from other countries, in particular Spain and South Africa