The Year ends in Tiers

The statistics from 23rd of December till now and into the new year are very unreliable due to the holiday season.  The new strain is spreading throughout the country. I wonder why?

From last week
Boris Johnson announced the changes to the restrictions in London and the South East at around 4:30pm on 19th December. No one was allowed to leave after midnight.  As a result trains were crammed, with no social distancing, by folk desperate to get home for Christmas.   How many people caught the virus in a packed train carriage to pass on over the festivities?

This made me think of another predictions on this blog on my very first post.

From 1/4/2020
So we have Coronavirus in the UK.  How bad is it really?    REALLY BAD.

A Second Wave?
Is a second wave possible?  Only if the government are even more negligent than they have been already. After this epidemic, we will have lost between 20 and 30 thousand of our loved ones.

Up until that post we had had 2921 deaths. By the end of that wave we had lost over 40 thousand, AND we got the second wave.  The government was grossly incompetent.

So we go into the new year with the Matt Hancock crying with joy about the new vaccines and Priti Patel touting that the government was always ahead of the curve.  What could possibly go wrong?

  • We are relying on the roll out of the vaccine which will take months and is dependent on government efficiency. Let’s hope they are better than they were distributing PPE and rolling out the track and trace system
  • The vaccines have been tested using two doses 3 weeks apart.  The government has decided to do them 12 weeks apart.
    Pfizer and BioNTech have warned that two doses of their vaccine were required for maximum protection against Covid and that they did not have evidence that the first dose alone offered protection after three weeks.

  • Cases are rising at 25% per week and we have not even seen the effect of the Christmas relaxation of restrictions. We lost 40,000 people in the first wave, 32,000 in the second wave so far, and deaths are approaching 1000 per day. We will probably surpass the first wave by mid January.
  • After vaccination it is around two weeks before any immunity is attained.  With the Oxford virus we know that this inhibits serious symptoms but we do not know if people are less infectious.
  • We are not sure that any vaccines work with the new strain.
  • We do not know how long the vaccines will be effective against future new strains (We need flu jabs every year for new variants)
  • Schools and Uni’s are going back – this was the probable trigger for the second wave.
  • The government is still ignoring scientific advice.
  • The figures will look lower over the Christmas and New Year period as those that died close to the 28 days may not be counted if the reported date is after 28 days.

So we have Coronavirus in the UK.  How bad is it really?    REALLY BAD.

Could we have done better?
Of course. New Zealand did a great job right from the start and Australia learned from the first wave (and other countries) and averted a second one.

But we are where we are, and we are going where we are going, and the incompetents will remain in charge.

To get through this alive (if you are older) or without a possible lifelong case of long-covid (if you are younger) rely on your own common sense. Get vaccinated as soon as you can but continue to avoid getting it and passing it on.