Two weeks of Tiers

From two weeks ago
So England, and therefore the UK, will probably be very close to the peak now and we should be starting to see a reduction in deaths over the next week.
The deaths reduced at a rate of 5% per day during the first lockdown.  The new Tier system is unlikely to better that, so maybe 4% may be possible.

Deaths did actually peak around the 28th November and fell at an average rate of 1.5% per day for 10 days.  But then curve flattened. They will probably start rising in a week or so as the cases have already started to rise.

The number of cases had been falling since mid November, but the fall stalled, and the numbers leveled out around the beginning of December and have been rising since the 9th of December.

Currently cases are rising much faster in Wales than the rest of the UK, although the death rate is not showing a corresponding increase?? The very latest UK figures show zero cases and deaths for Wales. This could be because they are being overwhelmed.

Mortality continues to increase even as the number of cases and deaths decreases. This is simply because  the disease is now spreading in the older and vulnerable. It now sits at around 2.5%.

 The figures

Cases are rising in the UK, France and Germany and the USA.

Deaths are fairly steady in the UK, falling in France and Italy and rising in Germany and the USA.

The UK figures are quite depressing. Cases are rising, deaths are not decreasing, restrictions will be reduced at Christmas, and the Tiers will soon be revised. The Government continues, as it has done from the beginning to react to little and too late.  We have proved incapable of controlling the virus without a vaccine, but hopefully the scientists, engineers, and technicians will take is out of this mess.

Leave a Comment