From two weeks ago
Deaths continue to increase following the increases in cases 2-3 weeks ago. they should level out soon at around 500 per day. The most optimistic outlook is that the deaths start decreasing NOW. But, even with the much stricter condition in the first lock down the reductions were only about 4% per day.
Deaths have indeed reached around 500 per day (actually 486). But they have not leveled out. They are still rising.
We can see in the graph below the number of cases increasing in September as the schools and the universities opened. But the cases were mostly among the younger folk and overall mortality was around 1%. During October the virus spread through the population reaching the old and vulnerable. and overall mortality began to rise. It now sits a 2%.
The Universities are still open and students will be going home for Christmas. At the same time lockdown restrictions will be loosened. We will see more of the older generation catching the virus at family gatherings.
|Case to deaths delay|
|UK||15th Nov||Not yet||more than 2 weeks|
|England||15th Nov||Not yet||more than 2 weeks|
|Northern Ireland||18th Oct||22nd Nov||5 weeks|
|Scotland||25th Oct (1st peak)||15th Nov||3 weeks|
|Wales||01 Nov (1st peak)||15th Nov||2 weeks|
|France||8th Nov||22nd Nov||2 weeks|
|Italy||15th Nov||Not yet||more than 2 weeks|
|Germany||22nd Nov||Not yet||more than 1 week|
|USA||The Thanksgiving day Holiday is distorting the figures after 26th November|
Cases and deaths have probably not peaked yet.
So England, and therefore the UK, will probably be very close to the peak now and we should be starting to see a reduction in deaths over the next week.
The deaths reduced at a rate of 5% per day during the first lockdown. The new Tier system is unlikely to better that, so maybe 4% may be possible. That would mean that deaths could be under 150 per day (1400 a week) by Christmas. That equates to 15 per million of population per week on the above graph.
Update 7 Dec
After the blip due to Thanksgiving the latest USA data shows that the new cases have not peaked yet although the rate has slowed and the peak may occur in the next week or two. Deaths continue to climb and we will probably not see a reduction until January.
In England, deaths peaked on 28th November, and have dropped by 8% so far or about 1% per day. 10 days before the peak in deaths, cases were dropping at 4% per day so hopefully the decline in death rates will accelerate over the next few weeks.