October

We  are now into the second wave.
In the chart below we can see cases have quadrupled in October in the UK and all countries are showing a considerable increase

The chart below shows the corresponding rise in the death rates.  Death rate in the UK is now higher than the USA, and both countries are showing an increase.

As predicted last month, the daily death rate reached 100 per day in mid October, but he rise in cases is slowing down and we have only had a 50% increase in the last two weeks. This will result in the death rate, currently at 18 per week per million of population rising to 27 or about 250 per day. 

Wales has a slightly higher death rate than England and has went into a two week lockdown.  Northern Ireland is in a 4 week lockdown.  Scotland may enter a lockdown this week.  England is continuing with local restrictions.
ALL of the four home nations are struggling.

Germany’s cases are similar to what the UK’s were 4 weeks ago.
Deaths are at the UK level of 5 weeks ago. 
Germany has just announced a lockdown.

Since the beginning of the pandemic he UK has lost proportionally 5 times more people to Covid than Germany.

It appears that the UK Government will not countenance a full lock down.  I believe that it will happen but, as usual be very late.  If it happens in four weeks, then cases will have risen at current rates by 130%, and deaths will continue on for a further two weeks or to increase by 250% or 500 per day.
During the last lockdown deaths fell by around 4% per day, so we can expect to be down to 100 per day in around 7 weeks.  Or mid February.

The idiot Trump, with a week before the election, has said that America has turned the corner.  Cases are rising at 18% per week and deaths at 11% Neither show any sign of plateauing and the central government is making no changes.  It’s all up to the individual states.   He may get in again too!!!!

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