September is showing the beginnings of a second wave.
In the chart below we can see cases in the UK starting to rise in the first week of September in England, Scotland and Wales and a little later in N.I.
The chart below shows the corresponding rise in the death rate beginning in the third week of September. The actual number of deaths in the uk nations other than England are very low, so much more prone to big variations in ratios caused by one or two extra or less deaths per week.
The cases show a doubling in the last two weeks which will result in a doubling of the deaths to around 6 per million` of population per week or 60 per day for the UK. If the number of cases ramp up at the same speed then deaths will be at 120 per day by the end of October. But hopefully the latest measures will cause the cases to start to decline followed by the death rate.
Update 5th October
The UK government screwed up the figures, losing 15,852 cases. The number of cases actually went up be a factor of 2.5, not 2. Deaths may reach 100 per day within two weeks and 250-300 by the end of the month.
But this has thrown the government into a panic and another national lockdown looms.
Also the idiot Trump and his bimbo wife now have the virus. Although he is obese he is fairly fit and with the absolute best care that America has he will probably recover. He has however infected 27 people in the Whitehouse, andthey are also spreading the disease
Apparently the drug he has been on can cause psychosis mania. Maybe he’s been on it for years!
The furlough scheme is coming to an end. This was intended to keep the economy ticking over until we were in control of the virus. But the fight looks like being much longer. The government has continued to do a pretty awful job being unable to get the test and trace system operating properly. Probably had they not sub contracted it to their friends it might be working by now.
But, we are where we are.
Some sectors, such as the police, the energy companies and the NHS are absolutely essential (although this government will continue it’s creeping privatization)
Now the government will be looking at withdrawing support from those sectors which can be run down, or even switched off, then re-started at a later date without too much government expense.
For example, the hospitality sector and the entertainment industry. Pubs restaurants and theatres and performers will go bust and close, but the market will mean the sector will build up again when it can. Albeit with different people. It is a shame for those people who will loose their jobs and livelihood, but the economy will not be able to support them at other than unemployment benefit level.
Some sectors though, such as manufacturing and farming will (hopefully) be supported as if these sectors crash they cannot recover easily, if at all.
Over the next year we will see a huge rise in unemployment, and resultant poverty levels. It is so sad that the young will be most affected by the slump in the economy while the old will be most effected by the virus.
We can expect the older population to shoulder some of the burden somehow.