Non Uniform Progress

The UK death rate continues to improve, albeit very slowly.  England has improved by 8.9% over the last week. The other UK Nations have done better.

As we look at Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the absolute numbers are small.  N.I. has had no deaths in the last week and Scotland has had 3.  Spain’s figures are suspect.

The USA in total is now seeing a rise in the death rate, largely driven by states such as Florida who have drastically reduced restrictions.  Unbelievably, Florida has re-opened Disneyland!

In Brazil, the death rate per million population has been sitting at about 33 for the last six weeks and shows no sign of coming down.  If president Bolsonaro, recovers without much problem from the virus (which is statistically very probable) he will continue to downplay the issues and the situation will not change.

In the UK. The effects of the reduced restrictions as regard social distancing and travel are yet to be seen in the death statistics.


What is evident is that the world is going to have to live with the virus until a vaccine is available. Worldwide recorded deaths, and therefore infections, have increased at a steady 10% per month for the past two months.

Strategies vary:-
From the ultra-cautious in Australia, where current death on the above graph would be 0.02 but some states are in lockdown;
Through the third world countries who do not have the infrastructure to handle the epidemic;
To the cavalier countries like Brazil, and the USA who are biasing their strategy in favour of the economy. 

It is a difficult choice, ignoring the virus will give rise to deaths, unfettered about 0.5% of the entire population would die.  But ignoring the economy could be as bad, or worse due to increased poverty and ultimately starvation.

I suspect many countries will bias their decision towards the economy, at the expense of losing some of their older population BUT, in most countries the decision makers are in that category themselves.