Graph1 shows that we have been in under 100% growth since around April 15. Of course, this is where the peak was. We are currently showing a growth rate of around 97.5%.
But a lot of the growth is due to the virus running rife in care homes. Graph 2 shows the hospital only deaths have a growth rate of 95%, and graph 3 shows the care home death rate is climbing at 105%. The result increase in care home deaths is shown in Graph 4.
As a comparison, Spain peaked around 5th April and currently have a growth of 95%. They have kept the growth below 100% for four weeks and have just extended the lockdown by two weeks.
Italy peaked around the 3rd of April and have a growth rate of around 96%.
The USA peaked around 2oth April and have a growth rate of 99%, although different states have vastly different figures. Some are looking to cone out of lock down within the next week.
China, with a vicious lock down policy managed to get the growth rate down to under 90% and overcome the virus very quickly.